Zamalek SC 1–0 Al Ittihad: Result & Stats

Zamalek SC

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Al Ittihad

N. Mansy 11'

3/6/2026

Premier League · Round 21Cairo International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Zamalek SC53%

×Draw29%

Al Ittihad19%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zamalek SCExpected goals in this matchAl Ittihad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.67

Zamalek SC

1.33

Al Ittihad

0.67

Zamalek SC creates 99% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 21 away

1.48

creates per match

0.57

0.76

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Zamalek SC

1.48

Al Ittihad

0.57

allows per match

Zamalek SC

0.76

Al Ittihad

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zamalek SC+0.00on par

Al Ittihad+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zamalek SC ↓

Al Ittihad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Zamalek SC or draw

81%

Zamalek SC or Al Ittihad

71%

Draw or Al Ittihad

47%

Winning margin

Zamalek SC wins by 2+

25%

Al Ittihad wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Zamalek SC 1+ goals

74%

Zamalek SC 2+ goals

38%

Zamalek SC 3+ goals

15%

Al Ittihad 1+ goals

49%

Al Ittihad 2+ goals

15%

Al Ittihad 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Zamalek SC (draw refunded)

74%

Al Ittihad (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zamalek SC at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.76 · 33 matches

Al Ittihad away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.19 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zamalek SC attack 1.48 + Al Ittihad defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.33

Al Ittihad attack 0.57 + Zamalek SC defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Zamalek SC scores more

53%

level

29%

Al Ittihad scores more

19%

Zamalek SC at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Zamalek SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

37

E. M. Soliman

Zamalek SC · G

8.2

Match Events

11'

N. Mansy↳ A. Fatouh

15'

Mabululu

34'

Karim El DeebCard upgrade

35'

Karim El Deeb

41'

F. Farid← Mabululu

45+2'

Mohamed Shehata

45+2'

Mohamed ShehataCard upgrade

45+3'

46'

66'

70'

70'

M. El Sayed← A. Fatouh

80'

O. Gaber← M. I. Hassan

86'

A. Kaied← N. Mansy

86'

J. Ebuka← M. Emad

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ZamalekAl

Overview

44%Possession56%

17Total Shots8

1.85Expected Goals (xG)0.58

4Corners6

9Fouls11

Shots

17Total Shots8

7On Target3

4Off Target2

6Blocked3

11Inside Box4

6Outside Box4

Passing

44%Possession56%

389Total Passes489

331Accurate Passes429

85%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

3Saves6

0.45Goals Prevented0.45

Discipline

9Fouls11

1Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards1

4Offsides1