Zamalek SC 3–0 Al Ittihad: Result & Stats

Zamalek SC

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Al Ittihad

Zizo 89', 14'

Nasser Maher 34'

4/11/2024

Premier League · Round 8Cairo International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Zamalek SC58%

×Draw27%

Al Ittihad15%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zamalek SCExpected goals in this matchAl Ittihad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

0.59

Zamalek SC

1.45

Al Ittihad

0.59

Zamalek SC creates 146% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 23 away

1.59

creates per match

0.52

0.67

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Zamalek SC

1.59

Al Ittihad

0.52

allows per match

Zamalek SC

0.67

Al Ittihad

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zamalek SC+0.00on par

Al Ittihad+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zamalek SC ↓

Al Ittihad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–18%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Zamalek SC or draw

85%

Zamalek SC or Al Ittihad

73%

Draw or Al Ittihad

42%

Winning margin

Zamalek SC wins by 2+

30%

Al Ittihad wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Zamalek SC 1+ goals

77%

Zamalek SC 2+ goals

42%

Zamalek SC 3+ goals

18%

Al Ittihad 1+ goals

45%

Al Ittihad 2+ goals

12%

Al Ittihad 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Zamalek SC (draw refunded)

79%

Al Ittihad (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zamalek SC at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.67 · 39 matches

Al Ittihad away — creates 0.52, concedes 1.30 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zamalek SC attack 1.59 + Al Ittihad defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.45

Al Ittihad attack 0.52 + Zamalek SC defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Zamalek SC scores more

58%

level

27%

Al Ittihad scores more

15%

Zamalek SC at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Zamalek SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

Zizo

Zamalek SC · F

9.2

Match Events

14'

Zizo

30'

Khaled El Ghandour

34'

Nasser Maher↳ Ahmed Abou El Fotouh

38'

Amr Saleh← Sherif Reda

44'

Ahmed Hamdi

56'

V. Bekalé Aubame← Ahmed Adel Messi

65'

Bekale Aubame

66'

Mohamed Shehata← Ahmed Hamdi

67'

S. Jaziri← Nasser Maher

67'

Mohab Yasser← S. Akinyoola

67'

Omar El Wahsh← S. Touka

67'

Abdel Ghani Mohamed← B. Boateng

68'

Hesham Salah← Khaled El Ghandour

71'

Seifeddine Jaziri

81'

Mostafa Ibrahim

85'

Mostafa El Zenary← Omar Gaber

85'

Zeyad Kamal← Nabil Emad Dunga

89'

Zizo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ZamalekAl

Overview

68%Possession32%

18Total Shots10

4Corners4

11Fouls8

Shots

18Total Shots10

5On Target2

9Off Target6

4Blocked2

9Inside Box8

9Outside Box2

Passing

68%Possession32%

646Total Passes287

559Accurate Passes205

87%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls8

2Yellow Cards3

4Offsides4