Zamalek SC 0–3 Al Ahly: Result & Stats

Zamalek SC

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Al Ahly

A. Bencharki 74', 18'

H. El Shahat 32'

5/1/2026

Premier League · Championship Group - 5Cairo International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Zamalek SC42%

×Draw27%

Al Ahly31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zamalek SCExpected goals in this matchAl Ahly

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.11

Zamalek SC

1.35

Al Ahly

1.11

Zamalek SC creates 22% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 17 away

1.57

creates per match

1.53

0.70

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Zamalek SC

1.57

Al Ahly

1.53

allows per match

Zamalek SC

0.70

Al Ahly

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zamalek SC+0.00on par

Al Ahly+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zamalek SC ↓

Al Ahly →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Zamalek SC or draw

69%

Zamalek SC or Al Ahly

73%

Draw or Al Ahly

58%

Winning margin

Zamalek SC wins by 2+

20%

Al Ahly wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Zamalek SC 1+ goals

74%

Zamalek SC 2+ goals

39%

Zamalek SC 3+ goals

15%

Al Ahly 1+ goals

67%

Al Ahly 2+ goals

30%

Al Ahly 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Zamalek SC (draw refunded)

58%

Al Ahly (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zamalek SC at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.70 · 37 matches

Al Ahly away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zamalek SC attack 1.57 + Al Ahly defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.35

Al Ahly attack 1.53 + Zamalek SC defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Zamalek SC scores more

42%

level

27%

Al Ahly scores more

31%

Zamalek SC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Zamalek SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

A. Bencharki

Al Ahly · F

9.7

Match Events

18'

A. Bencharki↳ T. Mohamed

20'

Ahmed Fatouh

32'

Hussein El Shahat

32'

H. El Shahat↳ A. Bencharki

46'

C. Banza← N. Mansy

57'

Mahmoud Bentayg

57'

Mahmoud Hamdi

60'

A. Dieng← H. El Shahat

65'

Ahmed RamadanPenalty confirmed

70'

Yassin Marei

71'

A. Kaied← A. El Said

74'

A. Bencharki↳ E. Ashour

80'

S. Jaziri← O. Dabbagh

80'

M. El Sayed← A. Fatouh

80'

M. Otaka← A. Bencharki

81'

M. Ben Romdhane← Trezeguet

86'

Zizo← T. Mohamed

87'

A. Eid← A. Ramadan

89'

Esho← Juan Alvina

90+3'

Ahmed Eid

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ZamalekAl

Overview

56%Possession44%

13Total Shots16

1.72Expected Goals (xG)2.58

6Corners1

6Fouls18

Shots

13Total Shots16

2On Target7

7Off Target1

4Blocked8

8Inside Box11

5Outside Box5

Passing

56%Possession44%

406Total Passes338

346Accurate Passes271

85%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

0.91Goals Prevented0.91

Discipline

6Fouls18

3Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1