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Zamalek SC vs Al Ahly — Premier League 2025

Zamalek SC
Zamalek SC
FT
3 – 0
Al Ahly
Al Ahly
3/11/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Championship Round - 1Cairo International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Zamalek SC41%
×Draw27%
Al Ahly31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zamalek SC
1.33
Al Ahly
1.12

Zamalek SC creates 19% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 17 away

creates per match

Zamalek SC
1.54
Al Ahly
1.53

allows per match

Zamalek SC
0.71
Al Ahly
1.12

finishing

Zamalek SC+0.00on par
Al Ahly+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zamalek SC ↓

Al Ahly →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Zamalek SC or draw
69%
Zamalek SC or Al Ahly
73%
Draw or Al Ahly
59%

Winning margin

Zamalek SC wins by 2+
19%
Al Ahly wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Zamalek SC 1+ goals
74%
Zamalek SC 2+ goals
38%
Zamalek SC 3+ goals
15%
Al Ahly 1+ goals
67%
Al Ahly 2+ goals
31%
Al Ahly 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Zamalek SC (draw refunded)
57%
Al Ahly (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zamalek SC at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.71 · 35 matches

Al Ahly away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zamalek SC attack 1.54 + Al Ahly defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.33

Al Ahly attack 1.53 + Zamalek SC defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Zamalek SC scores more
41%
level
27%
Al Ahly scores more
31%

Zamalek SC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Zamalek SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Zamalek
Al
José Peseiro
Manager: José Peseiro
M. Koller
Manager: M. Koller

Premier League: Zamalek SC 3–0 Al Ahly

Zamalek SC beat Al Ahly 3-0 in Premier League on March 11, 2025.

The match was played at Cairo International Stadium in Cairo.