Žalgiris II 1–1 Trakai II: Result & Stats | 1 Lyga

Žalgiris II

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Trakai II

4/3/2022

1 Lyga · Round 3Vilniaus LFF stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Žalgiris II41%

×Draw22%

Trakai II37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Žalgiris IIExpected goals in this matchTrakai II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.70

Žalgiris II

1.81

Trakai II

1.70

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 88 home / 66 away

1.85

creates per match

1.52

1.88

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Žalgiris II

1.85

Trakai II

1.52

allows per match

Žalgiris II

1.88

Trakai II

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Žalgiris II+0.00on par

Trakai II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Žalgiris II ↓

Trakai II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Žalgiris II or draw

63%

Žalgiris II or Trakai II

78%

Draw or Trakai II

59%

Winning margin

Žalgiris II wins by 2+

22%

Trakai II wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Žalgiris II 1+ goals

84%

Žalgiris II 2+ goals

54%

Žalgiris II 3+ goals

27%

Trakai II 1+ goals

82%

Trakai II 2+ goals

51%

Trakai II 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Žalgiris II (draw refunded)

53%

Trakai II (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Žalgiris II at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.88 · 88 matches

Trakai II away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.77 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Žalgiris II attack 1.85 + Trakai II defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.81

Trakai II attack 1.52 + Žalgiris II defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Žalgiris II scores more

41%

level

22%

Trakai II scores more

37%

Žalgiris II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Žalgiris II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff