Trakai II 1–2 Žalgiris II: Result & Stats | 1 Lyga

Trakai II

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Žalgiris II

8/12/2022

1 Lyga · Round 18Vilniaus LFF stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Trakai II46%

×Draw22%

Žalgiris II32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Trakai IIExpected goals in this matchŽalgiris II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

1.60

Trakai II

1.95

Žalgiris II

1.60

Trakai II creates 22% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 88 away

1.74

creates per match

1.55

1.66

allows per match

2.16

creates per match

Trakai II

1.74

Žalgiris II

1.55

allows per match

Trakai II

1.66

Žalgiris II

2.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Trakai II+0.00on par

Žalgiris II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trakai II ↓

Žalgiris II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Trakai II or draw

68%

Trakai II or Žalgiris II

78%

Draw or Žalgiris II

54%

Winning margin

Trakai II wins by 2+

26%

Žalgiris II wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Trakai II 1+ goals

86%

Trakai II 2+ goals

58%

Trakai II 3+ goals

31%

Žalgiris II 1+ goals

80%

Žalgiris II 2+ goals

47%

Žalgiris II 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Trakai II (draw refunded)

59%

Žalgiris II (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trakai II at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.66 · 65 matches

Žalgiris II away — creates 1.55, concedes 2.16 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trakai II attack 1.74 + Žalgiris II defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.95

Žalgiris II attack 1.55 + Trakai II defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Trakai II scores more

46%

level

22%

Žalgiris II scores more

32%

Trakai II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Trakai II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff