Žalgiris II 1–1 Panevėžys II: Result & Stats

Žalgiris II

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Panevėžys II

K. Lukasevic 72'

D. Aleksa 7' (OG)

10/4/2025

1 Lyga · Round 26FK Žalgiris namų stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Žalgiris II46%

×Draw21%

Panevėžys II32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Žalgiris IIExpected goals in this matchPanevėžys II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

1.67

Žalgiris II

2.02

Panevėžys II

1.67

Žalgiris II creates 21% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 81 away

1.85

creates per match

1.47

1.88

allows per match

2.19

creates per match

Žalgiris II

1.85

Panevėžys II

1.47

allows per match

Žalgiris II

1.88

Panevėžys II

2.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Žalgiris II+0.00on par

Panevėžys II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Žalgiris II ↓

Panevėžys II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Žalgiris II or draw

68%

Žalgiris II or Panevėžys II

79%

Draw or Panevėžys II

54%

Winning margin

Žalgiris II wins by 2+

26%

Panevėžys II wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Žalgiris II 1+ goals

87%

Žalgiris II 2+ goals

60%

Žalgiris II 3+ goals

33%

Panevėžys II 1+ goals

81%

Panevėžys II 2+ goals

50%

Panevėžys II 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Žalgiris II (draw refunded)

59%

Panevėžys II (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Žalgiris II at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.88 · 88 matches

Panevėžys II away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.19 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Žalgiris II attack 1.85 + Panevėžys II defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 2.02

Panevėžys II attack 1.47 + Žalgiris II defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Žalgiris II scores more

46%

level

21%

Panevėžys II scores more

32%

Žalgiris II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Žalgiris II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

D. AleksaOwn goal

31'

R. Lazdinauskas

42'

M. Valukonis

46'

G. Mikelaitis← P. Bosancic

46'

K. Lukasevic← M. Setkus

46'

A. Soja← P. Matyzonok

55'

G. Zederstreimas← K. Bicka

69'

E. Dzinga

72'

K. Lukasevic

73'

V. Berenta← U. Simonavicius

75'

B. Fedoruk← R. Kulbis

75'

A. Butkus← A. Jusys

82'

M. Pusnys← A. Slobodian

85'

G. Zederstreimas

Žalgiris

Panevėžys

13

Bukel

5

Bos

9

▼

Jusys

10

Misiunas

11

Lazdinaus

14

▼

Kulbis

23

Dzinga

30

▼

20

77

97

95

3

🥅

Aleksa

14

▼

Setkus

25

Pavilonis

28

▼

Simonavic

29

▼

Bicka

33

Klimavici

37

▼

Bosancic

44

▼

Matyzonok

60

Baksys

70

Valukonis

46'▲G. Mikelaitis←▼P. Bosancic

46'▲K. Lukasevic←▼M. Setkus

46'▲A. Soja←▼P. Matyzonok

55'▲G. Zederstreimas←▼K. Bicka

73'▲V. Berenta←▼U. Simonavicius

Žalgiris II substitutes

98Jakubovskis16Kontautas27Berenta35Mikelaitis39Velicka40Zederstreimas42Lukasevic83Soja

75'▲B. Fedoruk←▼R. Kulbis

75'▲A. Butkus←▼A. Jusys

82'▲M. Pusnys←▼A. Slobodian

Panevėžys II substitutes

99Raskauskas19Fedoruk21Pusnys31Butkus