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Panevėžys II vs Žalgiris II — 1 Lyga 2026

Panevėžys II
Panevėžys II
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Žalgiris II
Žalgiris II
N. Luksys 78' (pen), 19'
F. Mendelis 88'
T. Baksys 81'
6/23/20231 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 29Žemynos progimnazijos stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Panevėžys II40%
×Draw22%
Žalgiris II38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Panevėžys II
1.81
Žalgiris II
1.78

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 88 away

creates per match

Panevėžys II
1.47
Žalgiris II
1.55

allows per match

Panevėžys II
2.01
Žalgiris II
2.16

finishing

Panevėžys II+0.00on par
Žalgiris II+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Panevėžys II ↓

Žalgiris II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Panevėžys II or draw
62%
Panevėžys II or Žalgiris II
78%
Draw or Žalgiris II
60%

Winning margin

Panevėžys II wins by 2+
21%
Žalgiris II wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Panevėžys II 1+ goals
84%
Panevėžys II 2+ goals
54%
Panevėžys II 3+ goals
27%
Žalgiris II 1+ goals
83%
Žalgiris II 2+ goals
53%
Žalgiris II 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Panevėžys II (draw refunded)
51%
Žalgiris II (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Panevėžys II at home — creates 1.47, concedes 2.01 · 85 matches

Žalgiris II away — creates 1.55, concedes 2.16 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Panevėžys II attack 1.47 + Žalgiris II defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.81

Žalgiris II attack 1.55 + Panevėžys II defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Panevėžys II scores more
40%
level
22%
Žalgiris II scores more
38%

Panevėžys II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Panevėžys II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
N. Luksys
78'
N. LuksysPenalty
81'
T. Baksys
88'
F. Mendelis

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Panevėžys II vs Žalgiris II

Panevėžys II and Žalgiris II drew 2-2 in 1 Lyga on June 23, 2023.

Goals: N. Luksys (19', 78' pen), T. Baksys (81'), F. Mendelis (88').

The match was played at Žemynos progimnazijos stadionas in Panevėžys.