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Žalgiris II vs Kupiškis — 1 Lyga 2026

Žalgiris II
Žalgiris II
FT
1 – 1
Kupiškis
Kupiškis
4/14/20191 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 4Vilniaus LFF stadionas (Vilnius)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Žalgiris II37%
×Draw21%
Kupiškis42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Žalgiris II
1.93
Kupiškis
2.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 88 home / 14 away

creates per match

Žalgiris II
1.85
Kupiškis
2.21

allows per match

Žalgiris II
1.88
Kupiškis
2.00

finishing

Žalgiris II+0.00on par
Kupiškis+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Žalgiris II ↓

Kupiškis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Žalgiris II or draw
58%
Žalgiris II or Kupiškis
79%
Draw or Kupiškis
63%

Winning margin

Žalgiris II wins by 2+
20%
Kupiškis wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Žalgiris II 1+ goals
85%
Žalgiris II 2+ goals
57%
Žalgiris II 3+ goals
30%
Kupiškis 1+ goals
87%
Kupiškis 2+ goals
60%
Kupiškis 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Žalgiris II (draw refunded)
47%
Kupiškis (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Žalgiris II at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.88 · 88 matches

Kupiškis away — creates 2.21, concedes 2.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Žalgiris II attack 1.85 + Kupiškis defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.93

Kupiškis attack 2.21 + Žalgiris II defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Žalgiris II scores more
37%
level
21%
Kupiškis scores more
42%

Kupiškis at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kupiškis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Žalgiris II vs Kupiškis

Žalgiris II and Kupiškis drew 1-1 in 1 Lyga on April 14, 2019.

The match was played at Vilniaus LFF stadionas (Vilnius).