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Kupiškis vs Žalgiris II — 1 Lyga 2026

Kupiškis
Kupiškis
FT
2 – 0
Žalgiris II
Žalgiris II
8/9/20191 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 19Kupiškio miesto stadionas (Kupiškis)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Kupiškis38%
×Draw22%
Žalgiris II40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kupiškis
1.73
Žalgiris II
1.77

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 88 away

creates per match

Kupiškis
1.29
Žalgiris II
1.55

allows per match

Kupiškis
2.00
Žalgiris II
2.16

finishing

Kupiškis+0.00on par
Žalgiris II+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kupiškis ↓

Žalgiris II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Kupiškis or draw
60%
Kupiškis or Žalgiris II
78%
Draw or Žalgiris II
62%

Winning margin

Kupiškis wins by 2+
19%
Žalgiris II wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Kupiškis 1+ goals
82%
Kupiškis 2+ goals
52%
Kupiškis 3+ goals
25%
Žalgiris II 1+ goals
83%
Žalgiris II 2+ goals
53%
Žalgiris II 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Kupiškis (draw refunded)
49%
Žalgiris II (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kupiškis at home — creates 1.29, concedes 2.00 · 14 matches

Žalgiris II away — creates 1.55, concedes 2.16 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kupiškis attack 1.29 + Žalgiris II defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.73

Žalgiris II attack 1.55 + Kupiškis defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Kupiškis scores more
38%
level
22%
Žalgiris II scores more
40%

Žalgiris II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Žalgiris II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kupiškis vs Žalgiris II

Kupiškis beat Žalgiris II 2-0 in 1 Lyga on August 9, 2019.

The match was played at Kupiškio miesto stadionas (Kupiškis).