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Žalgiris II vs Kauno Žalgiris II — 1 Lyga 2026

Žalgiris II
Žalgiris II
FT
5 – 3
HT: 3 – 1
Kauno Žalgiris II
Kauno Žalgiris II
11/8/20231 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 30Vilniaus LFF stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Žalgiris II50%
×Draw22%
Kauno Žalgiris II28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Žalgiris II
1.99
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.46

Žalgiris II creates 36% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 77 away

creates per match

Žalgiris II
1.85
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.05

allows per match

Žalgiris II
1.88
Kauno Žalgiris II
2.13

finishing

Žalgiris II+0.00on par
Kauno Žalgiris II+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Žalgiris II ↓

Kauno Žalgiris II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Žalgiris II or draw
72%
Žalgiris II or Kauno Žalgiris II
78%
Draw or Kauno Žalgiris II
50%

Winning margin

Žalgiris II wins by 2+
29%
Kauno Žalgiris II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Žalgiris II 1+ goals
86%
Žalgiris II 2+ goals
59%
Žalgiris II 3+ goals
32%
Kauno Žalgiris II 1+ goals
77%
Kauno Žalgiris II 2+ goals
43%
Kauno Žalgiris II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Žalgiris II (draw refunded)
64%
Kauno Žalgiris II (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Žalgiris II at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.88 · 88 matches

Kauno Žalgiris II away — creates 1.05, concedes 2.13 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Žalgiris II attack 1.85 + Kauno Žalgiris II defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.99

Kauno Žalgiris II attack 1.05 + Žalgiris II defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Žalgiris II scores more
50%
level
22%
Kauno Žalgiris II scores more
28%

Žalgiris II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Žalgiris II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Žalgiris II vs Kauno Žalgiris II

Žalgiris II beat Kauno Žalgiris II 5-3 in 1 Lyga on November 8, 2023.

The match was played at Vilniaus LFF stadionas in Vilnius.