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Kauno Žalgiris II vs Žalgiris II — 1 Lyga 2026

Kauno Žalgiris II
Kauno Žalgiris II
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 0
Žalgiris II
Žalgiris II
6/26/20231 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 15SM Tauras Stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Kauno Žalgiris II40%
×Draw23%
Žalgiris II38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kauno Žalgiris II
1.75
Žalgiris II
1.70

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 73 home / 88 away

creates per match

Kauno Žalgiris II
1.33
Žalgiris II
1.55

allows per match

Kauno Žalgiris II
1.85
Žalgiris II
2.16

finishing

Kauno Žalgiris II+0.00on par
Žalgiris II+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kauno Žalgiris II ↓

Žalgiris II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Kauno Žalgiris II or draw
62%
Kauno Žalgiris II or Žalgiris II
77%
Draw or Žalgiris II
60%

Winning margin

Kauno Žalgiris II wins by 2+
21%
Žalgiris II wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Kauno Žalgiris II 1+ goals
83%
Kauno Žalgiris II 2+ goals
52%
Kauno Žalgiris II 3+ goals
25%
Žalgiris II 1+ goals
82%
Žalgiris II 2+ goals
51%
Žalgiris II 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Kauno Žalgiris II (draw refunded)
51%
Žalgiris II (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kauno Žalgiris II at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.85 · 73 matches

Žalgiris II away — creates 1.55, concedes 2.16 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kauno Žalgiris II attack 1.33 + Žalgiris II defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.75

Žalgiris II attack 1.55 + Kauno Žalgiris II defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Kauno Žalgiris II scores more
40%
level
23%
Žalgiris II scores more
38%

Kauno Žalgiris II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Kauno Žalgiris II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1 Lyga: Kauno Žalgiris II 2–3 Žalgiris II

Žalgiris II beat Kauno Žalgiris II 3-2 in 1 Lyga on June 26, 2023.

The match was played at SM Tauras Stadionas in Kaunas.