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Zalaegerszegi TE II vs Teskánd — NB III - Southwest 2019

Zalaegerszegi TE II
Zalaegerszegi TE II
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Teskánd
Teskánd
D. Kryvotsiuk 83' (pen)
C. Baloteli 31'
P. Bedovari 22'
A. Kiss 34'
2/26/2023NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 23ZTE-Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Zalaegerszegi TE II52%
×Draw20%
Teskánd28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zalaegerszegi TE II
2.33
Teskánd
1.68

Zalaegerszegi TE II creates 39% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 19 away

creates per match

Zalaegerszegi TE II
1.70
Teskánd
1.47

allows per match

Zalaegerszegi TE II
1.89
Teskánd
2.95

finishing

Zalaegerszegi TE II+0.00on par
Teskánd+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zalaegerszegi TE II ↓

Teskánd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Zalaegerszegi TE II or draw
72%
Zalaegerszegi TE II or Teskánd
80%
Draw or Teskánd
48%

Winning margin

Zalaegerszegi TE II wins by 2+
32%
Teskánd wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Zalaegerszegi TE II 1+ goals
90%
Zalaegerszegi TE II 2+ goals
67%
Zalaegerszegi TE II 3+ goals
41%
Teskánd 1+ goals
81%
Teskánd 2+ goals
50%
Teskánd 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Zalaegerszegi TE II (draw refunded)
65%
Teskánd (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zalaegerszegi TE II at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.89 · 57 matches

Teskánd away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.95 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zalaegerszegi TE II attack 1.70 + Teskánd defence 2.95 → ÷2 → 2.33

Teskánd attack 1.47 + Zalaegerszegi TE II defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Zalaegerszegi TE II scores more
52%
level
20%
Teskánd scores more
28%

Zalaegerszegi TE II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Zalaegerszegi TE II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'
P. Bedovari
31'
C. Baloteli
34'
A. Kiss
83'
D. KryvotsiukPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zalaegerszegi TE II vs Teskánd

Zalaegerszegi TE II beat Teskánd 3-1 in NB III - Southwest on February 26, 2023.

Goals: P. Bedovari (22'), C. Baloteli (31'), A. Kiss (34'), D. Kryvotsiuk (83' pen).

The match was played at ZTE-Aréna in Zalaegerszeg.