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Teskánd vs Zalaegerszegi TE II — NB III - Southwest 2019

Teskánd
Teskánd
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Zalaegerszegi TE II
Zalaegerszegi TE II
8/17/2022NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 4Teskándi Sportpálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Teskánd28%
×Draw22%
Zalaegerszegi TE II50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Teskánd
1.46
Zalaegerszegi TE II
2.00

Zalaegerszegi TE II creates 37% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 57 away

creates per match

Teskánd
1.16
Zalaegerszegi TE II
1.11

allows per match

Teskánd
2.89
Zalaegerszegi TE II
1.77

finishing

Teskánd+0.00on par
Zalaegerszegi TE II+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teskánd ↓

Zalaegerszegi TE II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Teskánd or draw
50%
Teskánd or Zalaegerszegi TE II
78%
Draw or Zalaegerszegi TE II
72%

Winning margin

Teskánd wins by 2+
13%
Zalaegerszegi TE II wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Teskánd 1+ goals
77%
Teskánd 2+ goals
43%
Teskánd 3+ goals
18%
Zalaegerszegi TE II 1+ goals
86%
Zalaegerszegi TE II 2+ goals
59%
Zalaegerszegi TE II 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Teskánd (draw refunded)
36%
Zalaegerszegi TE II (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teskánd at home — creates 1.16, concedes 2.89 · 19 matches

Zalaegerszegi TE II away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.77 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teskánd attack 1.16 + Zalaegerszegi TE II defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.46

Zalaegerszegi TE II attack 1.11 + Teskánd defence 2.89 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Teskánd scores more
28%
level
22%
Zalaegerszegi TE II scores more
50%

Zalaegerszegi TE II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Zalaegerszegi TE II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Teskánd vs Zalaegerszegi TE II

Zalaegerszegi TE II beat Teskánd 3-1 in NB III - Southwest on August 17, 2022.

The match was played at Teskándi Sportpálya in Teskánd.