Zalaegerszegi TE II 5–1 Móri SE: Result & Stats

Zalaegerszegi TE II

FT

5 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Móri SE

9/4/2022

NB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 7ZTE-Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Zalaegerszegi TE II50%

×Draw21%

Móri SE28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zalaegerszegi TE IIExpected goals in this matchMóri SE

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

1.52

Zalaegerszegi TE II

2.08

Móri SE

1.52

Zalaegerszegi TE II creates 37% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 19 away

1.70

creates per match

1.16

1.89

allows per match

2.47

creates per match

Zalaegerszegi TE II

1.70

Móri SE

1.16

allows per match

Zalaegerszegi TE II

1.89

Móri SE

2.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zalaegerszegi TE II+0.00on par

Móri SE+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zalaegerszegi TE II ↓

Móri SE →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Zalaegerszegi TE II or draw

72%

Zalaegerszegi TE II or Móri SE

79%

Draw or Móri SE

50%

Winning margin

Zalaegerszegi TE II wins by 2+

29%

Móri SE wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Zalaegerszegi TE II 1+ goals

87%

Zalaegerszegi TE II 2+ goals

61%

Zalaegerszegi TE II 3+ goals

34%

Móri SE 1+ goals

78%

Móri SE 2+ goals

45%

Móri SE 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Zalaegerszegi TE II (draw refunded)

64%

Móri SE (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zalaegerszegi TE II at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.89 · 57 matches

Móri SE away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.47 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zalaegerszegi TE II attack 1.70 + Móri SE defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.08

Móri SE attack 1.16 + Zalaegerszegi TE II defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Zalaegerszegi TE II scores more

50%

level

21%

Móri SE scores more

28%

Zalaegerszegi TE II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Zalaegerszegi TE II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff