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Móri SE vs Zalaegerszegi TE II — NB III - Southwest 2019

Móri SE
Móri SE
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Zalaegerszegi TE II
Zalaegerszegi TE II
3/19/2023NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 26Táncsics Mihály utcai Pálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Móri SE27%
×Draw23%
Zalaegerszegi TE II50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Móri SE
1.23
Zalaegerszegi TE II
1.77

Zalaegerszegi TE II creates 44% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 57 away

creates per match

Móri SE
0.68
Zalaegerszegi TE II
1.11

allows per match

Móri SE
2.42
Zalaegerszegi TE II
1.77

finishing

Móri SE+0.00on par
Zalaegerszegi TE II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Móri SE ↓

Zalaegerszegi TE II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Móri SE or draw
50%
Móri SE or Zalaegerszegi TE II
77%
Draw or Zalaegerszegi TE II
73%

Winning margin

Móri SE wins by 2+
11%
Zalaegerszegi TE II wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Móri SE 1+ goals
71%
Móri SE 2+ goals
35%
Móri SE 3+ goals
13%
Zalaegerszegi TE II 1+ goals
83%
Zalaegerszegi TE II 2+ goals
53%
Zalaegerszegi TE II 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Móri SE (draw refunded)
35%
Zalaegerszegi TE II (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Móri SE at home — creates 0.68, concedes 2.42 · 19 matches

Zalaegerszegi TE II away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.77 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Móri SE attack 0.68 + Zalaegerszegi TE II defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.23

Zalaegerszegi TE II attack 1.11 + Móri SE defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Móri SE scores more
27%
level
23%
Zalaegerszegi TE II scores more
50%

Zalaegerszegi TE II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Zalaegerszegi TE II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southwest: Móri SE 1–3 Zalaegerszegi TE II

Zalaegerszegi TE II beat Móri SE 3-1 in NB III - Southwest on March 19, 2023.

The match was played at Táncsics Mihály utcai Pálya in Mór.