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Zakho vs Erbil — Iraqi League 2025

Zakho
Zakho
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Erbil
Erbil
A. Attwan 73'
C. Barco 62' (pen), 10'
5/28/2026Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 37

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Zakho43%
×Draw27%
Erbil31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zakho
1.37
Erbil
1.12

Zakho creates 22% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 39 away

creates per match

Zakho
1.51
Erbil
1.46

allows per match

Zakho
0.78
Erbil
1.23

finishing

Zakho+0.00on par
Erbil+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zakho ↓

Erbil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Zakho or draw
69%
Zakho or Erbil
73%
Draw or Erbil
57%

Winning margin

Zakho wins by 2+
20%
Erbil wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Zakho 1+ goals
75%
Zakho 2+ goals
40%
Zakho 3+ goals
16%
Erbil 1+ goals
67%
Erbil 2+ goals
31%
Erbil 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Zakho (draw refunded)
58%
Erbil (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zakho at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.78 · 37 matches

Erbil away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.23 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zakho attack 1.51 + Erbil defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.37

Erbil attack 1.46 + Zakho defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Zakho scores more
43%
level
27%
Erbil scores more
31%

Zakho at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Zakho will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
C. Barco
62'
C. BarcoPenalty
73'
A. Attwan

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Zakho 1–2 Erbil

Erbil beat Zakho 2-1 in Iraqi League on May 28, 2026.

Goals: C. Barco (10', 62' pen), A. Attwan (73').