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Zakho vs Erbil — Iraqi League 2021

Zakho
Zakho
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Erbil
Erbil
Amjad Attwan 87' (pen), 70'
Sherko Kareem 72'
5/22/2024Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 30Zakho International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 107+ matches

Zakho43%
×Draw29%
Erbil28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zakho
1.26
Erbil
0.96

Zakho creates 31% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 107 away

creates per match

Zakho
1.21
Erbil
1.13

allows per match

Zakho
0.79
Erbil
1.31

finishing

Zakho+0.00on par
Erbil+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zakho ↓

Erbil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Zakho or draw
72%
Zakho or Erbil
71%
Draw or Erbil
57%

Winning margin

Zakho wins by 2+
19%
Erbil wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Zakho 1+ goals
72%
Zakho 2+ goals
36%
Zakho 3+ goals
13%
Erbil 1+ goals
62%
Erbil 2+ goals
25%
Erbil 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Zakho (draw refunded)
60%
Erbil (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zakho at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.79 · 107 matches

Erbil away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.31 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zakho attack 1.21 + Erbil defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.26

Erbil attack 1.13 + Zakho defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Zakho scores more
43%
level
29%
Erbil scores more
28%

Zakho at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Zakho will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

70'
Amjad Attwan
72'
Sherko Kareem
87'
Amjad AttwanPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Zakho 2–1 Erbil

Zakho beat Erbil 2-1 in Iraqi League on May 22, 2024.

Goals: Amjad Attwan (70', 87' pen), Sherko Kareem (72').

The match was played at Zakho International Stadium in Zakho.