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Zakho vs Al Talaba — Iraqi League 2025

Zakho
Zakho
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Al Talaba
Al Talaba
Matheus Lucas 59'
A. Saad 79'
A. Suhail 73'
4/12/2026Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 28

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Zakho39%
×Draw29%
Al Talaba32%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zakho
1.19
Al Talaba
1.06

Zakho creates 12% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 23 away

creates per match

Zakho
1.42
Al Talaba
1.30

allows per match

Zakho
0.81
Al Talaba
0.96

finishing

Zakho+0.00on par
Al Talaba+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zakho ↓

Al Talaba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Zakho or draw
68%
Zakho or Al Talaba
71%
Draw or Al Talaba
61%

Winning margin

Zakho wins by 2+
17%
Al Talaba wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Zakho 1+ goals
70%
Zakho 2+ goals
33%
Zakho 3+ goals
12%
Al Talaba 1+ goals
65%
Al Talaba 2+ goals
29%
Al Talaba 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Zakho (draw refunded)
55%
Al Talaba (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zakho at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.81 · 26 matches

Al Talaba away — creates 1.30, concedes 0.96 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zakho attack 1.42 + Al Talaba defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.19

Al Talaba attack 1.30 + Zakho defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Zakho scores more
39%
level
29%
Al Talaba scores more
32%

Zakho at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Zakho will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

59'
Matheus Lucas
73'
A. Suhail
79'
A. Saad

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zakho vs Al Talaba

Al Talaba beat Zakho 2-1 in Iraqi League on April 12, 2026.

Goals: Matheus Lucas (59'), A. Suhail (73'), A. Saad (79').