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Al Talaba vs Zakho — Iraqi League 2025

Al Talaba
Al Talaba
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Zakho
Zakho
Z. Ismaeel 21'
9/13/2025Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 1Al Talaba Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Al Talaba38%
×Draw31%
Zakho31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Talaba
1.03
Zakho
0.91

Al Talaba creates 13% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 36 away

creates per match

Al Talaba
1.12
Zakho
0.94

allows per match

Al Talaba
0.88
Zakho
0.94

finishing

Al Talaba+0.00on par
Zakho+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Talaba ↓

Zakho →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Al Talaba or draw
69%
Al Talaba or Zakho
69%
Draw or Zakho
62%

Winning margin

Al Talaba wins by 2+
15%
Zakho wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Al Talaba 1+ goals
64%
Al Talaba 2+ goals
28%
Al Talaba 3+ goals
9%
Zakho 1+ goals
60%
Zakho 2+ goals
23%
Zakho 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Al Talaba (draw refunded)
55%
Zakho (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Talaba at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.88 · 41 matches

Zakho away — creates 0.94, concedes 0.94 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Talaba attack 1.12 + Zakho defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.03

Zakho attack 0.94 + Al Talaba defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Al Talaba scores more
38%
level
31%
Zakho scores more
31%

Al Talaba at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Al Talaba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'
Z. Ismaeel

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Talaba vs Zakho

Al Talaba beat Zakho 1-0 in Iraqi League on September 13, 2025.

Goals: Z. Ismaeel (21').

The match was played at Al Talaba Stadium in Baghdad.