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Zagorje vs Svoboda — 3. SNL - West 2020

Zagorje
Zagorje
CANC
22:00
Svoboda
Svoboda
5/1/20213. SNL - West3. SNL - West · West - 22

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Zagorje20%
×Draw19%
Svoboda61%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zagorje
1.28
Svoboda
2.37

Svoboda creates 85% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 23 away

creates per match

Zagorje
0.44
Svoboda
1.30

allows per match

Zagorje
3.44
Svoboda
2.13

finishing

Zagorje+0.00on par
Svoboda+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zagorje ↓

Svoboda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Zagorje or draw
39%
Zagorje or Svoboda
81%
Draw or Svoboda
80%

Winning margin

Zagorje wins by 2+
8%
Svoboda wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Zagorje 1+ goals
72%
Zagorje 2+ goals
37%
Zagorje 3+ goals
14%
Svoboda 1+ goals
91%
Svoboda 2+ goals
68%
Svoboda 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

Zagorje (draw refunded)
24%
Svoboda (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zagorje at home — creates 0.44, concedes 3.44 · 9 matches

Svoboda away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.13 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zagorje attack 0.44 + Svoboda defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.28

Svoboda attack 1.30 + Zagorje defence 3.44 → ÷2 → 2.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Zagorje scores more
20%
level
19%
Svoboda scores more
61%

Svoboda at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Svoboda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Zagorje host Svoboda

May 1, 2021: Zagorje take on Svoboda in 3. SNL - West. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.