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Svoboda vs Zagorje — 3. SNL - West 2020

Svoboda
Svoboda
FT
3 – 0
Zagorje
Zagorje
10/10/20203. SNL - West3. SNL - West · West - 9Športni park Svoboda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Svoboda65%
×Draw17%
Zagorje18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Svoboda
2.83
Zagorje
1.47

Svoboda creates 93% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 10 away

creates per match

Svoboda
1.57
Zagorje
0.70

allows per match

Svoboda
2.24
Zagorje
4.10

finishing

Svoboda+0.00on par
Zagorje+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Svoboda ↓

Zagorje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Svoboda or draw
82%
Svoboda or Zagorje
83%
Draw or Zagorje
35%

Winning margin

Svoboda wins by 2+
45%
Zagorje wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Svoboda 1+ goals
94%
Svoboda 2+ goals
77%
Svoboda 3+ goals
53%
Zagorje 1+ goals
77%
Zagorje 2+ goals
43%
Zagorje 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Svoboda (draw refunded)
78%
Zagorje (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Svoboda at home — creates 1.57, concedes 2.24 · 21 matches

Zagorje away — creates 0.70, concedes 4.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Svoboda attack 1.57 + Zagorje defence 4.10 → ÷2 → 2.83

Zagorje attack 0.70 + Svoboda defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Svoboda scores more
65%
level
17%
Zagorje scores more
18%

Svoboda at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Svoboda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. SNL - West: Svoboda 3–0 Zagorje

Svoboda beat Zagorje 3-0 in 3. SNL - West on October 10, 2020.

The match was played at Športni park Svoboda in Ljubljana.