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Zagorje vs Šobec Lesce — 3. SNL - West 2020

Zagorje
Zagorje
CANC
22:00
Šobec Lesce
Šobec Lesce
4/17/20213. SNL - West3. SNL - West · West - 20

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Zagorje23%
×Draw21%
Šobec Lesce57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zagorje
1.30
Šobec Lesce
2.15

Šobec Lesce creates 65% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 23 away

creates per match

Zagorje
0.44
Šobec Lesce
0.87

allows per match

Zagorje
3.44
Šobec Lesce
2.17

finishing

Zagorje+0.00on par
Šobec Lesce+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zagorje ↓

Šobec Lesce →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Zagorje or draw
43%
Zagorje or Šobec Lesce
79%
Draw or Šobec Lesce
77%

Winning margin

Zagorje wins by 2+
9%
Šobec Lesce wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Zagorje 1+ goals
73%
Zagorje 2+ goals
37%
Zagorje 3+ goals
14%
Šobec Lesce 1+ goals
88%
Šobec Lesce 2+ goals
63%
Šobec Lesce 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Zagorje (draw refunded)
29%
Šobec Lesce (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zagorje at home — creates 0.44, concedes 3.44 · 9 matches

Šobec Lesce away — creates 0.87, concedes 2.17 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zagorje attack 0.44 + Šobec Lesce defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.30

Šobec Lesce attack 0.87 + Zagorje defence 3.44 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Zagorje scores more
23%
level
21%
Šobec Lesce scores more
57%

Šobec Lesce at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Šobec Lesce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Zagorje host Šobec Lesce

April 17, 2021: Zagorje take on Šobec Lesce in 3. SNL - West. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.