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Šobec Lesce vs Zagorje — 3. SNL - West 2020

Šobec Lesce
Šobec Lesce
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Zagorje
Zagorje
5/29/20213. SNL - West3. SNL - West · West - Relegation Round - 4Štadion Na Žagi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Šobec Lesce70%
×Draw16%
Zagorje14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Šobec Lesce
2.82
Zagorje
1.19

Šobec Lesce creates 137% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 10 away

creates per match

Šobec Lesce
1.55
Zagorje
0.70

allows per match

Šobec Lesce
1.68
Zagorje
4.10

finishing

Šobec Lesce+0.00on par
Zagorje+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Šobec Lesce ↓

Zagorje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Šobec Lesce or draw
86%
Šobec Lesce or Zagorje
84%
Draw or Zagorje
30%

Winning margin

Šobec Lesce wins by 2+
50%
Zagorje wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Šobec Lesce 1+ goals
94%
Šobec Lesce 2+ goals
77%
Šobec Lesce 3+ goals
52%
Zagorje 1+ goals
70%
Zagorje 2+ goals
33%
Zagorje 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Šobec Lesce (draw refunded)
84%
Zagorje (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Šobec Lesce at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.68 · 22 matches

Zagorje away — creates 0.70, concedes 4.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Šobec Lesce attack 1.55 + Zagorje defence 4.10 → ÷2 → 2.82

Zagorje attack 0.70 + Šobec Lesce defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Šobec Lesce scores more
70%
level
16%
Zagorje scores more
14%

Šobec Lesce at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Šobec Lesce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. SNL - West: Šobec Lesce 2–2 Zagorje

Šobec Lesce and Zagorje drew 2-2 in 3. SNL - West on May 29, 2021.

The match was played at Štadion Na Žagi in Lesce.