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Zagorje vs Izola — 3. SNL - West 2020

Zagorje
Zagorje
CANC
14:00
Izola
Izola
5/15/20213. SNL - West3. SNL - West · West - 24

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Zagorje8%
×Draw14%
Izola78%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zagorje
0.77
Izola
2.74

Izola creates 256% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 23 away

creates per match

Zagorje
0.44
Izola
2.04

allows per match

Zagorje
3.44
Izola
1.09

finishing

Zagorje+0.00on par
Izola+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zagorje ↓

Izola →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–18%
0–211%
0–310%
0–47%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–23%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Zagorje or draw
22%
Zagorje or Izola
86%
Draw or Izola
92%

Winning margin

Zagorje wins by 2+
2%
Izola wins by 2+
57%

Team goals

Zagorje 1+ goals
54%
Zagorje 2+ goals
18%
Zagorje 3+ goals
4%
Izola 1+ goals
93%
Izola 2+ goals
75%
Izola 3+ goals
51%

Draw no bet

Zagorje (draw refunded)
9%
Izola (draw refunded)
91%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zagorje at home — creates 0.44, concedes 3.44 · 9 matches

Izola away — creates 2.04, concedes 1.09 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zagorje attack 0.44 + Izola defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.77

Izola attack 2.04 + Zagorje defence 3.44 → ÷2 → 2.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Zagorje scores more
8%
level
14%
Izola scores more
78%

Izola at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Izola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Zagorje host Izola

May 15, 2021: Zagorje take on Izola in 3. SNL - West. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.