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Izola vs Zagorje — 3. SNL - West 2020

Izola
Izola
FT
6 – 1
Zagorje
Zagorje
4/24/20213. SNL - West3. SNL - West · West - 11Mestni stadion Izola

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Izola78%
×Draw13%
Zagorje9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Izola
3.14
Zagorje
1.01

Izola creates 211% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 10 away

creates per match

Izola
2.18
Zagorje
0.70

allows per match

Izola
1.32
Zagorje
4.10

finishing

Izola+0.00on par
Zagorje+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Izola ↓

Zagorje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–19%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (9%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Izola or draw
91%
Izola or Zagorje
87%
Draw or Zagorje
22%

Winning margin

Izola wins by 2+
59%
Zagorje wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Izola 1+ goals
95%
Izola 2+ goals
81%
Izola 3+ goals
59%
Zagorje 1+ goals
64%
Zagorje 2+ goals
27%
Zagorje 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Izola (draw refunded)
90%
Zagorje (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Izola at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.32 · 22 matches

Zagorje away — creates 0.70, concedes 4.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Izola attack 2.18 + Zagorje defence 4.10 → ÷2 → 3.14

Zagorje attack 0.70 + Izola defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Izola scores more
78%
level
13%
Zagorje scores more
9%

Izola at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Izola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Izola vs Zagorje

Izola beat Zagorje 6-1 in 3. SNL - West on April 24, 2021.

The match was played at Mestni stadion Izola in Izola.