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Zagorje vs Adria — 3. SNL - West 2020

Zagorje
Zagorje
FT
0 – 1
Adria
Adria
8/22/20203. SNL - West3. SNL - West · West - 2Mestni stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Zagorje11%
×Draw17%
Adria72%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zagorje
0.83
Adria
2.44

Adria creates 194% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

Zagorje
0.44
Adria
1.44

allows per match

Zagorje
3.44
Adria
1.22

finishing

Zagorje+0.00on par
Adria+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zagorje ↓

Adria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–211%
0–39%
0–46%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Zagorje or draw
28%
Zagorje or Adria
83%
Draw or Adria
89%

Winning margin

Zagorje wins by 2+
3%
Adria wins by 2+
50%

Team goals

Zagorje 1+ goals
56%
Zagorje 2+ goals
20%
Zagorje 3+ goals
5%
Adria 1+ goals
91%
Adria 2+ goals
70%
Adria 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Zagorje (draw refunded)
13%
Adria (draw refunded)
87%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zagorje at home — creates 0.44, concedes 3.44 · 9 matches

Adria away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zagorje attack 0.44 + Adria defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 0.83

Adria attack 1.44 + Zagorje defence 3.44 → ÷2 → 2.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Zagorje scores more
11%
level
17%
Adria scores more
72%

Adria at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Adria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zagorje vs Adria

Adria beat Zagorje 1-0 in 3. SNL - West on August 22, 2020.

The match was played at Mestni stadion in Zagorje ob Savi.