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Adria vs Zagorje — 3. SNL - West 2020

Adria
Adria
CANC
14:00
Zagorje
Zagorje
3/13/20213. SNL - West3. SNL - West · West - 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Adria70%
×Draw16%
Zagorje14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adria
2.80
Zagorje
1.20

Adria creates 133% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

creates per match

Adria
1.50
Zagorje
0.70

allows per match

Adria
1.70
Zagorje
4.10

finishing

Adria+0.00on par
Zagorje+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adria ↓

Zagorje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Adria or draw
86%
Adria or Zagorje
84%
Draw or Zagorje
30%

Winning margin

Adria wins by 2+
49%
Zagorje wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Adria 1+ goals
94%
Adria 2+ goals
76%
Adria 3+ goals
52%
Zagorje 1+ goals
70%
Zagorje 2+ goals
34%
Zagorje 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Adria (draw refunded)
83%
Zagorje (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adria at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.70 · 10 matches

Zagorje away — creates 0.70, concedes 4.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adria attack 1.50 + Zagorje defence 4.10 → ÷2 → 2.80

Zagorje attack 0.70 + Adria defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Adria scores more
70%
level
16%
Zagorje scores more
14%

Adria at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Adria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Adria vs Zagorje — Match Preview

Adria face Zagorje on March 13, 2021 in this 3. SNL - West fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.