Zagorets 1–0 Sekirovo Rakovski: Result & Stats

Zagorets

FT

1 – 0

Sekirovo Rakovski

8/16/2024

Third League - Southeast · Southeast - 3Stadion Zagorets

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Zagorets70%

×Draw18%

Sekirovo Rakovski12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ZagoretsExpected goals in this matchSekirovo Rakovski

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

0.81

Zagorets

2.25

Sekirovo Rakovski

0.81

Zagorets creates 178% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 56 away

2.43

creates per match

0.93

0.70

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

Zagorets

2.43

Sekirovo Rakovski

0.93

allows per match

Zagorets

0.70

Sekirovo Rakovski

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zagorets+0.00on par

Sekirovo Rakovski+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zagorets ↓

Sekirovo Rakovski →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Zagorets or draw

88%

Zagorets or Sekirovo Rakovski

82%

Draw or Sekirovo Rakovski

30%

Winning margin

Zagorets wins by 2+

46%

Sekirovo Rakovski wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Zagorets 1+ goals

89%

Zagorets 2+ goals

65%

Zagorets 3+ goals

39%

Sekirovo Rakovski 1+ goals

56%

Sekirovo Rakovski 2+ goals

19%

Sekirovo Rakovski 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Zagorets (draw refunded)

85%

Sekirovo Rakovski (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zagorets at home — creates 2.43, concedes 0.70 · 136 matches

Sekirovo Rakovski away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.07 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zagorets attack 2.43 + Sekirovo Rakovski defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.25

Sekirovo Rakovski attack 0.93 + Zagorets defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Zagorets scores more

70%

level

18%

Sekirovo Rakovski scores more

12%

Zagorets at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Zagorets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff