Sekirovo Rakovski 0–1 Zagorets: Result & Stats

Sekirovo Rakovski

FT

0 – 1

Zagorets

3/1/2025

Third League - Southeast · Southeast - 22Stadion Peter Parchevich

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Sekirovo Rakovski35%

×Draw25%

Zagorets39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sekirovo RakovskiExpected goals in this matchZagorets

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.42

Sekirovo Rakovski

1.34

Zagorets

1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 56 home / 135 away

1.55

creates per match

1.57

1.27

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Sekirovo Rakovski

1.55

Zagorets

1.57

allows per match

Sekirovo Rakovski

1.27

Zagorets

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sekirovo Rakovski+0.00on par

Zagorets+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sekirovo Rakovski ↓

Zagorets →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Sekirovo Rakovski or draw

61%

Sekirovo Rakovski or Zagorets

75%

Draw or Zagorets

65%

Winning margin

Sekirovo Rakovski wins by 2+

16%

Zagorets wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Sekirovo Rakovski 1+ goals

74%

Sekirovo Rakovski 2+ goals

39%

Sekirovo Rakovski 3+ goals

15%

Zagorets 1+ goals

76%

Zagorets 2+ goals

41%

Zagorets 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Sekirovo Rakovski (draw refunded)

48%

Zagorets (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sekirovo Rakovski at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.27 · 56 matches

Zagorets away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.14 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sekirovo Rakovski attack 1.55 + Zagorets defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.34

Zagorets attack 1.57 + Sekirovo Rakovski defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sekirovo Rakovski scores more

35%

level

25%

Zagorets scores more

39%

Zagorets at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Zagorets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff