Zagorets 2–3 Sayana Haskovo: Result & Stats

Zagorets

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Sayana Haskovo

4/1/2026

Third League - Southeast · Southeast - 27

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Zagorets57%

×Draw22%

Sayana Haskovo21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ZagoretsExpected goals in this matchSayana Haskovo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.07

Zagorets

1.90

Sayana Haskovo

1.07

Zagorets creates 78% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 92 away

2.43

creates per match

1.45

0.70

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Zagorets

2.43

Sayana Haskovo

1.45

allows per match

Zagorets

0.70

Sayana Haskovo

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zagorets+0.00on par

Sayana Haskovo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zagorets ↓

Sayana Haskovo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Zagorets or draw

79%

Zagorets or Sayana Haskovo

78%

Draw or Sayana Haskovo

43%

Winning margin

Zagorets wins by 2+

33%

Sayana Haskovo wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Zagorets 1+ goals

85%

Zagorets 2+ goals

56%

Zagorets 3+ goals

29%

Sayana Haskovo 1+ goals

66%

Sayana Haskovo 2+ goals

29%

Sayana Haskovo 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Zagorets (draw refunded)

73%

Sayana Haskovo (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zagorets at home — creates 2.43, concedes 0.70 · 136 matches

Sayana Haskovo away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.37 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zagorets attack 2.43 + Sayana Haskovo defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.90

Sayana Haskovo attack 1.45 + Zagorets defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Zagorets scores more

57%

level

22%

Sayana Haskovo scores more

21%

Zagorets at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Zagorets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff