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Sayana Haskovo vs Zagorets — Third League - Southeast 2018

Sayana Haskovo
Sayana Haskovo
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Zagorets
Zagorets
9/20/2025Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 8Stadion Dimitar Kanev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Sayana Haskovo48%
×Draw25%
Zagorets27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sayana Haskovo
1.61
Zagorets
1.14

Sayana Haskovo creates 41% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 135 away

creates per match

Sayana Haskovo
2.08
Zagorets
1.57

allows per match

Sayana Haskovo
0.70
Zagorets
1.14

finishing

Sayana Haskovo+0.00on par
Zagorets+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sayana Haskovo ↓

Zagorets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Sayana Haskovo or draw
73%
Sayana Haskovo or Zagorets
75%
Draw or Zagorets
52%

Winning margin

Sayana Haskovo wins by 2+
25%
Zagorets wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sayana Haskovo 1+ goals
80%
Sayana Haskovo 2+ goals
48%
Sayana Haskovo 3+ goals
22%
Zagorets 1+ goals
68%
Zagorets 2+ goals
32%
Zagorets 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sayana Haskovo (draw refunded)
64%
Zagorets (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sayana Haskovo at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.70 · 92 matches

Zagorets away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.14 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sayana Haskovo attack 2.08 + Zagorets defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.61

Zagorets attack 1.57 + Sayana Haskovo defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sayana Haskovo scores more
48%
level
25%
Zagorets scores more
27%

Sayana Haskovo at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sayana Haskovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sayana Haskovo vs Zagorets

Sayana Haskovo beat Zagorets 2-0 in Third League - Southeast on September 20, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Dimitar Kanev in Haskovo.