Zagorec 1–2 Mladost Ždralovi: Result & Stats

Zagorec

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Mladost Ždralovi

11/5/2022

Second NL · Round 12ŠRC Podgora

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Zagorec31%

×Draw26%

Mladost Ždralovi43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ZagorecExpected goals in this matchMladost Ždralovi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.44

Zagorec

1.17

Mladost Ždralovi

1.44

Mladost Ždralovi creates 23% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 60 away

1.25

creates per match

1.50

1.38

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Zagorec

1.25

Mladost Ždralovi

1.50

allows per match

Zagorec

1.38

Mladost Ždralovi

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zagorec+0.00on par

Mladost Ždralovi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zagorec ↓

Mladost Ždralovi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Zagorec or draw

57%

Zagorec or Mladost Ždralovi

74%

Draw or Mladost Ždralovi

69%

Winning margin

Zagorec wins by 2+

12%

Mladost Ždralovi wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Zagorec 1+ goals

69%

Zagorec 2+ goals

33%

Zagorec 3+ goals

11%

Mladost Ždralovi 1+ goals

76%

Mladost Ždralovi 2+ goals

42%

Mladost Ždralovi 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Zagorec (draw refunded)

42%

Mladost Ždralovi (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zagorec at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches

Mladost Ždralovi away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.08 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zagorec attack 1.25 + Mladost Ždralovi defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.17

Mladost Ždralovi attack 1.50 + Zagorec defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Zagorec scores more

31%

level

26%

Mladost Ždralovi scores more

43%

Mladost Ždralovi at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Mladost Ždralovi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff