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Mladost Ždralovi vs Zagorec — Second NL 2022

Mladost Ždralovi
Mladost Ždralovi
FT
4 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Zagorec
Zagorec
Unknown 64', 57', 50', 33'
Unknown 80', 54', 49'
5/14/2023Second NLSecond NL · Round 27Igralište NK Mladost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Mladost Ždralovi62%
×Draw21%
Zagorec17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mladost Ždralovi
1.96
Zagorec
0.90

Mladost Ždralovi creates 118% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 16 away

creates per match

Mladost Ždralovi
1.93
Zagorec
1.00

allows per match

Mladost Ždralovi
0.80
Zagorec
2.00

finishing

Mladost Ždralovi+0.00on par
Zagorec+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladost Ždralovi ↓

Zagorec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Mladost Ždralovi or draw
83%
Mladost Ždralovi or Zagorec
79%
Draw or Zagorec
38%

Winning margin

Mladost Ždralovi wins by 2+
37%
Zagorec wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Mladost Ždralovi 1+ goals
86%
Mladost Ždralovi 2+ goals
58%
Mladost Ždralovi 3+ goals
31%
Zagorec 1+ goals
59%
Zagorec 2+ goals
23%
Zagorec 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Mladost Ždralovi (draw refunded)
79%
Zagorec (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladost Ždralovi at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.80 · 60 matches

Zagorec away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladost Ždralovi attack 1.93 + Zagorec defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.96

Zagorec attack 1.00 + Mladost Ždralovi defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Mladost Ždralovi scores more
62%
level
21%
Zagorec scores more
17%

Mladost Ždralovi at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Mladost Ždralovi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'
49'
50'
54'
57'
64'
80'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mladost Ždralovi vs Zagorec

Mladost Ždralovi beat Zagorec 4-3 in Second NL on May 14, 2023.

Goals: ? (33', 49', 50', 54', 57', 64', 80').

The match was played at Igralište NK Mladost in Ždralovi.