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Zagorec vs Marsonia — Second NL 2022

Zagorec
Zagorec
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Marsonia
Marsonia
10/8/2022Second NLSecond NL · Round 8ŠRC Podgora

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Zagorec48%
×Draw23%
Marsonia29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zagorec
1.80
Marsonia
1.37

Zagorec creates 31% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 45 away

creates per match

Zagorec
1.25
Marsonia
1.36

allows per match

Zagorec
1.38
Marsonia
2.36

finishing

Zagorec+0.00on par
Marsonia+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zagorec ↓

Marsonia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Zagorec or draw
71%
Zagorec or Marsonia
77%
Draw or Marsonia
52%

Winning margin

Zagorec wins by 2+
26%
Marsonia wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Zagorec 1+ goals
83%
Zagorec 2+ goals
54%
Zagorec 3+ goals
27%
Marsonia 1+ goals
75%
Marsonia 2+ goals
40%
Marsonia 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Zagorec (draw refunded)
62%
Marsonia (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zagorec at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches

Marsonia away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.36 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zagorec attack 1.25 + Marsonia defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.80

Marsonia attack 1.36 + Zagorec defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Zagorec scores more
48%
level
23%
Marsonia scores more
29%

Zagorec at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Zagorec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zagorec vs Marsonia

Marsonia beat Zagorec 2-0 in Second NL on October 8, 2022.

The match was played at ŠRC Podgora in Krapina.