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Marsonia vs Zagorec — Second NL 2022

Marsonia
Marsonia
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Zagorec
Zagorec
4/15/2023Second NLSecond NL · Round 23ŠRC Stanko Vlainić-Dida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Marsonia48%
×Draw23%
Zagorec29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marsonia
1.79
Zagorec
1.34

Marsonia creates 34% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 16 away

creates per match

Marsonia
1.58
Zagorec
1.00

allows per match

Marsonia
1.69
Zagorec
2.00

finishing

Marsonia+0.00on par
Zagorec+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marsonia ↓

Zagorec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Marsonia or draw
71%
Marsonia or Zagorec
77%
Draw or Zagorec
52%

Winning margin

Marsonia wins by 2+
26%
Zagorec wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Marsonia 1+ goals
83%
Marsonia 2+ goals
53%
Marsonia 3+ goals
26%
Zagorec 1+ goals
74%
Zagorec 2+ goals
39%
Zagorec 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Marsonia (draw refunded)
62%
Zagorec (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marsonia at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.69 · 45 matches

Zagorec away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marsonia attack 1.58 + Zagorec defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.79

Zagorec attack 1.00 + Marsonia defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Marsonia scores more
48%
level
23%
Zagorec scores more
29%

Marsonia at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Marsonia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Marsonia vs Zagorec

Zagorec beat Marsonia 3-1 in Second NL on April 15, 2023.

The match was played at ŠRC Stanko Vlainić-Dida in Slavonski Brod.