Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Zagorec vs Jadran Poreč — Second NL 2022

Zagorec
Zagorec
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Jadran Poreč
Jadran Poreč
11/19/2022Second NLSecond NL · Round 14ŠRC Podgora

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Zagorec56%
×Draw22%
Jadran Poreč23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zagorec
1.99
Jadran Poreč
1.19

Zagorec creates 67% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 45 away

creates per match

Zagorec
1.25
Jadran Poreč
1.00

allows per match

Zagorec
1.38
Jadran Poreč
2.73

finishing

Zagorec+0.00on par
Jadran Poreč+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zagorec ↓

Jadran Poreč →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Zagorec or draw
77%
Zagorec or Jadran Poreč
78%
Draw or Jadran Poreč
44%

Winning margin

Zagorec wins by 2+
33%
Jadran Poreč wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Zagorec 1+ goals
86%
Zagorec 2+ goals
59%
Zagorec 3+ goals
32%
Jadran Poreč 1+ goals
70%
Jadran Poreč 2+ goals
33%
Jadran Poreč 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Zagorec (draw refunded)
71%
Jadran Poreč (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zagorec at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches

Jadran Poreč away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.73 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zagorec attack 1.25 + Jadran Poreč defence 2.73 → ÷2 → 1.99

Jadran Poreč attack 1.00 + Zagorec defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Zagorec scores more
56%
level
22%
Jadran Poreč scores more
23%

Zagorec at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Zagorec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zagorec vs Jadran Poreč

Zagorec and Jadran Poreč drew 1-1 in Second NL on November 19, 2022.

The match was played at ŠRC Podgora in Krapina.