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Jadran Poreč vs Zagorec — Second NL 2022

Jadran Poreč
Jadran Poreč
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Zagorec
Zagorec
5/27/2023Second NLSecond NL · Round 29Stadion Veli Jože

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Jadran Poreč48%
×Draw24%
Zagorec28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jadran Poreč
1.75
Zagorec
1.28

Jadran Poreč creates 37% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 16 away

creates per match

Jadran Poreč
1.49
Zagorec
1.00

allows per match

Jadran Poreč
1.56
Zagorec
2.00

finishing

Jadran Poreč+0.00on par
Zagorec+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jadran Poreč ↓

Zagorec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Jadran Poreč or draw
72%
Jadran Poreč or Zagorec
76%
Draw or Zagorec
52%

Winning margin

Jadran Poreč wins by 2+
26%
Zagorec wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Jadran Poreč 1+ goals
83%
Jadran Poreč 2+ goals
52%
Jadran Poreč 3+ goals
25%
Zagorec 1+ goals
72%
Zagorec 2+ goals
37%
Zagorec 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Jadran Poreč (draw refunded)
63%
Zagorec (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jadran Poreč at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.56 · 45 matches

Zagorec away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jadran Poreč attack 1.49 + Zagorec defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

Zagorec attack 1.00 + Jadran Poreč defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Jadran Poreč scores more
48%
level
24%
Zagorec scores more
28%

Jadran Poreč at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Jadran Poreč will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jadran Poreč vs Zagorec

Jadran Poreč and Zagorec drew 1-1 in Second NL on May 27, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Veli Jože in Poreč.