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Zagorec vs Jadran LP — Second NL 2022

Zagorec
Zagorec
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Jadran LP
Jadran LP
4/8/2023Second NLSecond NL · Round 22ŠRC Podgora

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Zagorec30%
×Draw27%
Jadran LP43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zagorec
1.09
Jadran LP
1.38

Jadran LP creates 27% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 60 away

creates per match

Zagorec
1.25
Jadran LP
1.38

allows per match

Zagorec
1.38
Jadran LP
0.93

finishing

Zagorec+0.00on par
Jadran LP+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zagorec ↓

Jadran LP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Zagorec or draw
57%
Zagorec or Jadran LP
73%
Draw or Jadran LP
70%

Winning margin

Zagorec wins by 2+
12%
Jadran LP wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Zagorec 1+ goals
66%
Zagorec 2+ goals
30%
Zagorec 3+ goals
10%
Jadran LP 1+ goals
75%
Jadran LP 2+ goals
40%
Jadran LP 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Zagorec (draw refunded)
41%
Jadran LP (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zagorec at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches

Jadran LP away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.93 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zagorec attack 1.25 + Jadran LP defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.09

Jadran LP attack 1.38 + Zagorec defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Zagorec scores more
30%
level
27%
Jadran LP scores more
43%

Jadran LP at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Jadran LP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second NL: Zagorec 0–0 Jadran LP

Zagorec and Jadran LP drew 0-0 in Second NL on April 8, 2023.

The match was played at ŠRC Podgora in Krapina.