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Jadran LP vs Zagorec — Second NL 2022

Jadran LP
Jadran LP
FT
5 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Zagorec
Zagorec
10/1/2022Second NLSecond NL · Round 7Igralište NK Jadran

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Jadran LP62%
×Draw21%
Zagorec18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jadran LP
2.09
Zagorec
1.02

Jadran LP creates 105% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 16 away

creates per match

Jadran LP
2.18
Zagorec
1.00

allows per match

Jadran LP
1.03
Zagorec
2.00

finishing

Jadran LP+0.00on par
Zagorec+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jadran LP ↓

Zagorec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Jadran LP or draw
82%
Jadran LP or Zagorec
79%
Draw or Zagorec
38%

Winning margin

Jadran LP wins by 2+
38%
Zagorec wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Jadran LP 1+ goals
88%
Jadran LP 2+ goals
62%
Jadran LP 3+ goals
34%
Zagorec 1+ goals
64%
Zagorec 2+ goals
27%
Zagorec 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Jadran LP (draw refunded)
78%
Zagorec (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jadran LP at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.03 · 60 matches

Zagorec away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jadran LP attack 2.18 + Zagorec defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.09

Zagorec attack 1.00 + Jadran LP defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Jadran LP scores more
62%
level
21%
Zagorec scores more
18%

Jadran LP at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Jadran LP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jadran LP vs Zagorec

Jadran LP beat Zagorec 5-1 in Second NL on October 1, 2022.

The match was played at Igralište NK Jadran in Ploče.