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Zagora vs Urania Baška Voda — Third NL - Jug 2019

Zagora
Zagora
FT
3 – 0
Urania Baška Voda
Urania Baška Voda
4/8/2023Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 23Stadion Borovište

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Zagora72%
×Draw17%
Urania Baška Voda11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zagora
2.40
Urania Baška Voda
0.84

Zagora creates 186% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 57 away

creates per match

Zagora
2.68
Urania Baška Voda
0.81

allows per match

Zagora
0.88
Urania Baška Voda
2.12

finishing

Zagora+0.00on par
Urania Baška Voda+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zagora ↓

Urania Baška Voda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Zagora or draw
89%
Zagora or Urania Baška Voda
83%
Draw or Urania Baška Voda
28%

Winning margin

Zagora wins by 2+
49%
Urania Baška Voda wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Zagora 1+ goals
91%
Zagora 2+ goals
69%
Zagora 3+ goals
42%
Urania Baška Voda 1+ goals
57%
Urania Baška Voda 2+ goals
21%
Urania Baška Voda 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Zagora (draw refunded)
86%
Urania Baška Voda (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zagora at home — creates 2.68, concedes 0.88 · 102 matches

Urania Baška Voda away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.12 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zagora attack 2.68 + Urania Baška Voda defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 2.40

Urania Baška Voda attack 0.81 + Zagora defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Zagora scores more
72%
level
17%
Urania Baška Voda scores more
11%

Zagora at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Zagora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third NL - Jug: Zagora 3–0 Urania Baška Voda

Zagora beat Urania Baška Voda 3-0 in Third NL - Jug on April 8, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Borovište in Unešić.