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Urania Baška Voda vs Zagora — Third NL - Jug 2019

Urania Baška Voda
Urania Baška Voda
FT
0 – 2
Zagora
Zagora
10/12/2022Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 8Športski Centar Ante Jurišić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Urania Baška Voda43%
×Draw25%
Zagora33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Urania Baška Voda
1.56
Zagora
1.34

Urania Baška Voda creates 16% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 102 away

creates per match

Urania Baška Voda
1.54
Zagora
1.47

allows per match

Urania Baška Voda
1.21
Zagora
1.57

finishing

Urania Baška Voda+0.00on par
Zagora+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urania Baška Voda ↓

Zagora →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Urania Baška Voda or draw
67%
Urania Baška Voda or Zagora
75%
Draw or Zagora
57%

Winning margin

Urania Baška Voda wins by 2+
21%
Zagora wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Urania Baška Voda 1+ goals
79%
Urania Baška Voda 2+ goals
46%
Urania Baška Voda 3+ goals
21%
Zagora 1+ goals
74%
Zagora 2+ goals
39%
Zagora 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Urania Baška Voda (draw refunded)
56%
Zagora (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urania Baška Voda at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.21 · 57 matches

Zagora away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.57 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urania Baška Voda attack 1.54 + Zagora defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.56

Zagora attack 1.47 + Urania Baška Voda defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Urania Baška Voda scores more
43%
level
25%
Zagora scores more
33%

Urania Baška Voda at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Urania Baška Voda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third NL - Jug: Urania Baška Voda 0–2 Zagora

Zagora beat Urania Baška Voda 2-0 in Third NL - Jug on October 12, 2022.

The match was played at Športski Centar Ante Jurišić in Baška Voda.