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Zagora vs RNK Split — Third NL - Jug 2019

Zagora
Zagora
FT
1 – 1
RNK Split
RNK Split
3/20/2021Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 18Stadion Borovište

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Zagora62%
×Draw20%
RNK Split18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zagora
2.16
RNK Split
1.05

Zagora creates 106% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 57 away

creates per match

Zagora
2.68
RNK Split
1.23

allows per match

Zagora
0.88
RNK Split
1.63

finishing

Zagora+0.00on par
RNK Split+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zagora ↓

RNK Split →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Zagora or draw
82%
Zagora or RNK Split
80%
Draw or RNK Split
38%

Winning margin

Zagora wins by 2+
39%
RNK Split wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Zagora 1+ goals
88%
Zagora 2+ goals
63%
Zagora 3+ goals
36%
RNK Split 1+ goals
65%
RNK Split 2+ goals
28%
RNK Split 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Zagora (draw refunded)
78%
RNK Split (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zagora at home — creates 2.68, concedes 0.88 · 102 matches

RNK Split away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.63 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zagora attack 2.68 + RNK Split defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 2.16

RNK Split attack 1.23 + Zagora defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Zagora scores more
62%
level
20%
RNK Split scores more
18%

Zagora at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Zagora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third NL - Jug: Zagora 1–1 RNK Split

Zagora and RNK Split drew 1-1 in Third NL - Jug on March 20, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Borovište in Unešić.