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RNK Split vs Zagora — Third NL - Jug 2019

RNK Split
RNK Split
FT
1 – 5
Zagora
Zagora
11/26/2022Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 15Stadion Park mladeži

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

RNK Split46%
×Draw25%
Zagora29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RNK Split
1.62
Zagora
1.23

RNK Split creates 32% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 102 away

creates per match

RNK Split
1.67
Zagora
1.47

allows per match

RNK Split
1.00
Zagora
1.57

finishing

RNK Split+0.00on par
Zagora+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RNK Split ↓

Zagora →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

RNK Split or draw
71%
RNK Split or Zagora
75%
Draw or Zagora
54%

Winning margin

RNK Split wins by 2+
24%
Zagora wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

RNK Split 1+ goals
80%
RNK Split 2+ goals
48%
RNK Split 3+ goals
22%
Zagora 1+ goals
71%
Zagora 2+ goals
35%
Zagora 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

RNK Split (draw refunded)
62%
Zagora (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RNK Split at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 57 matches

Zagora away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.57 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RNK Split attack 1.67 + Zagora defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.62

Zagora attack 1.47 + RNK Split defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

RNK Split scores more
46%
level
25%
Zagora scores more
29%

RNK Split at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "RNK Split will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third NL - Jug: RNK Split 1–5 Zagora

Zagora beat RNK Split 5-1 in Third NL - Jug on November 26, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Park mladeži in Split.