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Zaglebie Sosnowiec vs Wisla Krakow — I Liga 2018

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Wisla Krakow
Wisla Krakow
10/28/2022I LigaI Liga · Round 16Stadion Ludowy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec28%
×Draw25%
Wisla Krakow47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.16
Wisla Krakow
1.58

Wisla Krakow creates 36% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 67 away

creates per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.16
Wisla Krakow
1.78

allows per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.39
Wisla Krakow
1.16

finishing

Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par
Wisla Krakow+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaglebie Sosnowiec ↓

Wisla Krakow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Zaglebie Sosnowiec or draw
53%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec or Wisla Krakow
75%
Draw or Wisla Krakow
72%

Winning margin

Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+
11%
Wisla Krakow wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals
69%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals
32%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals
11%
Wisla Krakow 1+ goals
79%
Wisla Krakow 2+ goals
47%
Wisla Krakow 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)
37%
Wisla Krakow (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zaglebie Sosnowiec at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.39 · 85 matches

Wisla Krakow away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.16 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 1.16 + Wisla Krakow defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.16

Wisla Krakow attack 1.78 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more
28%
level
25%
Wisla Krakow scores more
47%

Wisla Krakow at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Wisla Krakow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zaglebie Sosnowiec vs Wisla Krakow

Wisla Krakow beat Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2-1 in I Liga on October 28, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Ludowy in Sosnowiec.