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Zaglebie Sosnowiec vs Wisla Krakow — Ekstraklasa 2018

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Wisla Krakow
Wisla Krakow
4/25/2019EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Relegation Round - 2Stadion Ludowy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec40%
×Draw22%
Wisla Krakow38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.84
Wisla Krakow
1.77

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 69 away

creates per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.89
Wisla Krakow
1.22

allows per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
2.33
Wisla Krakow
1.80

finishing

Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par
Wisla Krakow+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaglebie Sosnowiec ↓

Wisla Krakow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Zaglebie Sosnowiec or draw
62%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec or Wisla Krakow
78%
Draw or Wisla Krakow
60%

Winning margin

Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+
21%
Wisla Krakow wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals
84%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals
55%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals
28%
Wisla Krakow 1+ goals
83%
Wisla Krakow 2+ goals
53%
Wisla Krakow 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)
52%
Wisla Krakow (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zaglebie Sosnowiec at home — creates 1.89, concedes 2.33 · 18 matches

Wisla Krakow away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.80 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 1.89 + Wisla Krakow defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.84

Wisla Krakow attack 1.22 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more
40%
level
22%
Wisla Krakow scores more
38%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Zaglebie Sosnowiec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ekstraklasa: Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2–1 Wisla Krakow

Zaglebie Sosnowiec beat Wisla Krakow 2-1 in Ekstraklasa on April 25, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Ludowy in Sosnowiec.