Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1–4 Wisła Puławy: Result & Stats

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Wisła Puławy

5/16/2025

II Liga - East · Round 31ArcelorMittal Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec37%

×Draw23%

Wisła Puławy40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zaglebie SosnowiecExpected goals in this matchWisła Puławy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.66

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.60

Wisła Puławy

1.66

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 70 away

1.38

creates per match

1.49

1.82

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.38

Wisła Puławy

1.49

allows per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.82

Wisła Puławy

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par

Wisła Puławy+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaglebie Sosnowiec ↓

Wisła Puławy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Zaglebie Sosnowiec or draw

60%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec or Wisła Puławy

77%

Draw or Wisła Puławy

63%

Winning margin

Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+

18%

Wisła Puławy wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals

80%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals

47%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals

22%

Wisła Puławy 1+ goals

81%

Wisła Puławy 2+ goals

49%

Wisła Puławy 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)

48%

Wisła Puławy (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zaglebie Sosnowiec at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.82 · 34 matches

Wisła Puławy away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.83 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 1.38 + Wisła Puławy defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.60

Wisła Puławy attack 1.49 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more

37%

level

23%

Wisła Puławy scores more

40%

Wisła Puławy at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Wisła Puławy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff