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Wisła Puławy vs Zaglebie Sosnowiec — II Liga - East 2019

Wisła Puławy
Wisła Puławy
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
10/20/2024II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 14Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Wisła Puławy45%
×Draw25%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wisła Puławy
1.52
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.18

Wisła Puławy creates 29% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 33 away

creates per match

Wisła Puławy
1.49
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.06

allows per match

Wisła Puławy
1.29
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.55

finishing

Wisła Puławy+0.00on par
Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wisła Puławy ↓

Zaglebie Sosnowiec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Wisła Puławy or draw
70%
Wisła Puławy or Zaglebie Sosnowiec
75%
Draw or Zaglebie Sosnowiec
55%

Winning margin

Wisła Puławy wins by 2+
22%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Wisła Puławy 1+ goals
78%
Wisła Puławy 2+ goals
45%
Wisła Puławy 3+ goals
20%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals
69%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals
33%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Wisła Puławy (draw refunded)
60%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wisła Puławy at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.29 · 68 matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.55 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wisła Puławy attack 1.49 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.52

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 1.06 + Wisła Puławy defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Wisła Puławy scores more
45%
level
25%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more
30%

Wisła Puławy at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Wisła Puławy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wisła Puławy vs Zaglebie Sosnowiec

Wisła Puławy beat Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1-0 in II Liga - East on October 20, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR in Puławy.