Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Zaglebie Sosnowiec vs Wieczysta Kraków — II Liga - East 2019

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 0
Wieczysta Kraków
Wieczysta Kraków
10/26/2024II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 15ArcelorMittal Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec22%
×Draw23%
Wieczysta Kraków54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.04
Wieczysta Kraków
1.77

Wieczysta Kraków creates 70% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 17 away

creates per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.38
Wieczysta Kraków
1.71

allows per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.82
Wieczysta Kraków
0.71

finishing

Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par
Wieczysta Kraków+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaglebie Sosnowiec ↓

Wieczysta Kraków →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–29%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Zaglebie Sosnowiec or draw
46%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec or Wieczysta Kraków
77%
Draw or Wieczysta Kraków
78%

Winning margin

Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+
8%
Wieczysta Kraków wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals
65%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals
28%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals
9%
Wieczysta Kraków 1+ goals
83%
Wieczysta Kraków 2+ goals
53%
Wieczysta Kraków 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)
29%
Wieczysta Kraków (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zaglebie Sosnowiec at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.82 · 34 matches

Wieczysta Kraków away — creates 1.71, concedes 0.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 1.38 + Wieczysta Kraków defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.04

Wieczysta Kraków attack 1.71 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more
22%
level
23%
Wieczysta Kraków scores more
54%

Wieczysta Kraków at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Wieczysta Kraków will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zaglebie Sosnowiec vs Wieczysta Kraków

Wieczysta Kraków beat Zaglebie Sosnowiec 4-1 in II Liga - East on October 26, 2024.

The match was played at ArcelorMittal Park in Sosnowiec.