Wieczysta Kraków 1–1 Zaglebie Sosnowiec

Wieczysta Kraków

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

5/24/2025

II Liga - East · Round 32Stadion KS Wieczysta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Wieczysta Kraków57%

×Draw23%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wieczysta KrakówExpected goals in this matchZaglebie Sosnowiec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.00

Wieczysta Kraków

1.85

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.00

Wieczysta Kraków creates 85% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 33 away

2.16

creates per match

1.06

0.95

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Wieczysta Kraków

2.16

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.06

allows per match

Wieczysta Kraków

0.95

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wieczysta Kraków+0.00on par

Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wieczysta Kraków ↓

Zaglebie Sosnowiec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Wieczysta Kraków or draw

80%

Wieczysta Kraków or Zaglebie Sosnowiec

77%

Draw or Zaglebie Sosnowiec

43%

Winning margin

Wieczysta Kraków wins by 2+

33%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Wieczysta Kraków 1+ goals

84%

Wieczysta Kraków 2+ goals

55%

Wieczysta Kraków 3+ goals

28%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals

63%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals

26%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Wieczysta Kraków (draw refunded)

74%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wieczysta Kraków at home — creates 2.16, concedes 0.95 · 19 matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.55 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wieczysta Kraków attack 2.16 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.85

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 1.06 + Wieczysta Kraków defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Wieczysta Kraków scores more

57%

level

23%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more

20%

Wieczysta Kraków at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Wieczysta Kraków will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff